A Republican President and a Democratic Vice President? The Current Electoral College Race is a Statistical Tie

As the 2024 election season enters its final stages, the race for the White House is tightening, with recent polling data indicating that the Electoral College could result in a statistical tie. The possibility of an Electoral College deadlock has raised concerns about the potential for a split executive branch—where a Republican could be elected President and a Democrat as Vice President. This scenario, although rare, is becoming increasingly plausible given the current dynamics.

Key Races Shaping the Electoral College

Several key Senate and Governor races are poised to have a significant impact on the Electoral College. Below is an analysis of these crucial races, the candidates involved, and the latest polling data as of August 2024:

1. Georgia Senate Race
   • Candidates: Raphael Warnock (D) vs. Herschel Walker (R)
   • Polling Margin: Within 1-2 points, highly competitive.
   • Margin of Error: ±3-4% [❞] [❞].
   • Impact: A true toss-up, this race could be pivotal in determining Georgia's electoral votes.
2. North Carolina Senate Race
   • Candidates: Cheri Beasley (D) vs. Ted Budd (R)
   • Polling Margin: 2-3 points, Budd slightly ahead.
   • Margin of Error: ±3% [❞].
   • Impact: Slight Republican edge, but the race remains competitive.
3. Ohio Senate Race
   • Candidates: Tim Ryan (D) vs. TBD (R) following J.D. Vance’s VP nomination
   • Polling Margin: Vance led by 2-3 points before his VP selection.
   • Margin of Error: ±3-4% [❞].
   • Impact: With Vance stepping aside, Ohio becomes a crucial battleground with uncertainty surrounding the GOP's replacement candidate.
4. Arizona Senate Race
   • Candidates: Ruben Gallego (D) vs. Kari Lake (R)
   • Polling Margin: Gallego leads by +9%.
   • Margin of Error: ±3-4% [❞].
   • Impact: Leaning Democratic, but Arizona remains a key battleground state.
5. Wisconsin Senate Race
   • Candidates: Tammy Baldwin (D) vs. Eric Hovde (R)
   • Polling Margin: Baldwin leads by 7 points.
   • Margin of Error: ±3-4% [❞] [❞].
   • Impact: Leaning Democratic, but within reach for Republicans in this swing state.
6. Nevada Senate Race
   • Candidates: Jacky Rosen (D) vs. Jim Marchant (R)
   • Polling Margin: Rosen leads by 5-6 points.
   • Margin of Error: ±3-4% [❞].
   • Impact: Leaning Democratic, but remains a contested race.
7. Michigan Senate Race
   • Candidates: Elissa Slotkin (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R)
   • Polling Margin: Slotkin leads by 8 points.
   • Margin of Error: ±3-4% [❞].
   • Impact: Strongly leaning Democratic, critical for securing Michigan’s electoral votes.
8. Arizona Governor’s Race
   • Candidates: Katie Hobbs (D) vs. Kari Lake (R)
   • Polling Margin: Very close, within 1-2 points.
   • Margin of Error: ±3-4% [❞].
   • Impact: Could go either way, influencing the state’s overall political alignment.
9. Wisconsin Governor’s Race
   • Candidates: Tony Evers (D) vs. Rebecca Kleefisch (R)
   • Polling Margin: Close, within 1-2 points.
   • Margin of Error: ±3% [❞].
   • Impact: A toss-up with significant implications for the state’s political control.
10. Michigan Governor’s Race
    • Candidates: Gretchen Whitmer (D) vs. Tudor Dixon (R)
    • Polling Margin: Whitmer leads by 6-7 points.
    • Margin of Error: ±3-4% [❞].
    • Impact: Likely Democratic, but still critical in the broader electoral context.

What Happens If the Electoral College Ties?

If the 2024 presidential election results in a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College, the decision for the next President moves to the House of Representatives, while the Senate selects the Vice President. Here’s how the process works:

• House of Representatives: The House votes for the President, with each state delegation having one vote. The majority of state delegations (26 out of 50) is needed to elect the President. Historically, Republicans have controlled more state delegations, which could give them an advantage if the House decides the presidency [❞].
• Senate: The Senate votes for the Vice President, with each Senator casting one vote. A majority of the full Senate (51 votes) is needed to elect the Vice President. Depending on the Senate's composition, this could result in a Vice President from a different party than the President [❞] [❞].

Potential Outcomes

Given the current polling and political landscape, there is a plausible scenario where a Republican could be elected President by the House and a Democrat as Vice President by the Senate. This outcome would create a unique political dynamic, where the executive branch is shared between the two major parties, potentially leading to gridlock or forced bipartisanship in governance [❞].

AIPAC’s Role in These Races

While AIPAC has not explicitly targeted all these races, their influence could be significant, especially in tight contests. Races like Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Ohio are within the margin of error, meaning targeted efforts by AIPAC could potentially sway the outcome. Given AIPAC’s historical involvement in U.S. elections, their role in the 2024 races could prove to be a decisive factor in the final Electoral College tally [❞] [❞].

Conclusion

The 2024 presidential race is shaping up to be one of the closest in modern history, with the potential for an Electoral College tie bringing a split executive branch into play. As polling numbers remain tight across key battleground states, both parties must navigate a complex electoral landscape, where every vote—and every state—counts.