Scenarios Where Neither Trump Nor Harris Would End Up Being President of the United States

The U.S. presidential election process, while generally straightforward, contains several potential scenarios—some theoretical, others more plausible—where neither of the two major candidates, such as Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, would end up being president. This article explores these scenarios in detail, providing a comprehensive analysis of how the complex and sometimes unpredictable nature of the Electoral College and other constitutional mechanisms could lead to an outcome where neither Trump nor Harris assumes the presidency.

1. Electoral College Tie (269-269 Split)

The most well-known and relatively plausible scenario where neither Trump nor Harris becomes president is an Electoral College tie. In the U.S. presidential election, each candidate must secure a majority of the 538 available electoral votes, with 270 being the required number to win. If both candidates receive exactly 269 electoral votes, the election would be thrown to the U.S. House of Representatives, as stipulated by the 12th Amendment to the Constitution.

House Voting Process: In this contingent election, each state delegation in the House of Representatives casts one vote for one of the top three candidates, and the candidate who receives a majority of state delegation votes (at least 26 out of 50) becomes president. If the House is evenly divided, deadlocks, or fails to reach a decision by Inauguration Day (January 20), the Vice President-elect, chosen by the Senate, would serve as Acting President until the House resolves the issue. If the Senate also fails to select a Vice President, the Speaker of the House could serve as Acting President .

2. Faithless Electors

Another scenario involves so-called "faithless electors." These are members of the Electoral College who do not vote for the candidate they are pledged to, whether due to personal conviction, political strategy, or other reasons. While rare, faithless electors have existed in several past elections.

Impact of Faithless Electors: If a significant number of electors defect from their pledged candidate, it could prevent either Trump or Harris from reaching the 270 electoral votes required to win. In this situation, the election would once again be decided by the House of Representatives. However, if the faithless votes are dispersed among multiple candidates, it could result in a situation where no candidate has a clear path to victory in the House, increasing the likelihood that neither Trump nor Harris would be elected .

3. Third-Party or Independent Candidate Wins Key Electoral Votes

While third-party or independent candidates typically do not secure a significant number of electoral votes, a strong third-party candidate could alter the dynamics of the Electoral College. If this candidate wins a few crucial states and secures enough electoral votes to deny either Trump or Harris a majority, the election would be sent to the House of Representatives.

Complications in the House: In this scenario, the presence of a third-party candidate in the contingent election could further complicate the process. If no candidate can secure a majority of state delegation votes, and the House remains deadlocked, the Vice President-elect chosen by the Senate could assume the presidency temporarily, or the Speaker of the House could become Acting President .

4. Death or Disqualification of a Candidate Before Electoral College Vote

A particularly unusual but constitutionally significant scenario would involve the death or disqualification of one of the major candidates (Trump or Harris) after the general election but before the Electoral College votes in December. The party of the deceased or disqualified candidate would need to nominate a replacement, but electors are not necessarily bound to vote for this replacement.

Potential Outcomes: If enough electors decide to vote for a different candidate or abstain, it could prevent any candidate from reaching the required 270 electoral votes. This situation would likely result in the election being decided by the House of Representatives, with the same potential for a deadlock and the involvement of the Senate or Speaker of the House .

5. Resignation or Withdrawal Before the Electoral College Vote

Similar to the previous scenario, if one of the candidates resigns or withdraws from the race after the general election but before the Electoral College meets, it could throw the election into disarray. The candidate’s party would have to quickly nominate a replacement, but again, electors might choose not to follow this recommendation.

Impact on the Electoral Vote Count: This scenario could result in no candidate reaching 270 electoral votes, sending the election to the House of Representatives for resolution. If the House cannot agree on a winner, the process would mirror that of other contingent election scenarios, with the possibility of the Vice President-elect or Speaker of the House serving as Acting President .

6. Widespread Electoral College Abstentions

If a significant number of electors abstain from voting or cast protest votes, it could prevent any candidate from reaching the 270 electoral votes needed to win. While unlikely, this scenario could theoretically occur if electors are deeply dissatisfied with both major candidates.

Contingent Election and Acting President: The result would likely be a contingent election in the House of Representatives. If no resolution is reached by Inauguration Day, the Speaker of the House could become Acting President, or the Senate-selected Vice President-elect could temporarily assume the role .

7. Inability to Certify Electoral Votes

In a highly contested election with widespread legal challenges, recounts, or other disputes, some states might be unable to certify their electoral votes by the deadline in December. This could result in no candidate securing 270 electoral votes.

Constitutional Crisis: This scenario would likely lead to a significant constitutional crisis. If enough states fail to certify their votes, it could create a situation where no candidate is elected by the Electoral College. The House of Representatives would then be tasked with resolving the issue, but if no decision is made by Inauguration Day, an Acting President could be appointed from the ranks of existing government officials, such as the Speaker of the House .

8. Electoral College Refusal

In an extreme and unprecedented situation, the Electoral College could refuse to vote for either of the major candidates, particularly if there is a major national crisis, such as a significant constitutional dispute, civil unrest, or a credible national security threat. If electors collectively decide not to cast their votes or cast them for a compromise candidate, this could prevent either Trump or Harris from becoming president.

Intervention by Congress or the Supreme Court: Such a scenario would almost certainly result in a constitutional crisis requiring intervention by Congress or the Supreme Court. The resolution of this crisis could lead to the appointment of a compromise candidate as president or the selection of an Acting President until the situation is resolved .

Conclusion

While the U.S. electoral system is designed to ensure a clear outcome in presidential elections, these scenarios illustrate that the system is not infallible. Various constitutional mechanisms, from the Electoral College to contingent elections in Congress, provide pathways to resolving elections, but they also introduce the possibility of unexpected outcomes. While most of these scenarios are highly unlikely, they highlight the potential complexities and challenges in ensuring a peaceful and orderly transfer of power in the United States.

References

1. U.S. Constitution, 12th Amendment. National Archives. Retrieved from https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27.
2. Electoral College Tie: What Happens Next. The Atlantic. Retrieved from https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/what-happens-if-there-electoral-college-tie-269-269/617047/.
3. Faithless Electors in the Electoral College. FairVote. Retrieved from https://www.fairvote.org/faithless_electors.
4. What If No One Wins the Presidential Election?. National Constitution Center. Retrieved from https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/what-if-no-one-wins-the-presidential-election.
5. The Death of a Candidate and the Electoral College. Congressional Research Service. Retrieved from https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/LSB/LSB10439.
6. What Happens If a Presidential Candidate Dies or Withdraws?. NPR. Retrieved from https://www.npr.org/2020/10/03/920085929/what-happens-if-a-presidential-candidate-dies-or-withdraws.
7. Contingent Elections: The House of Representatives Chooses the President. Congressional Research Service. Retrieved from https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11516.
8. How Faithless Electors Could Deny Either Trump or Biden the Presidency. Politico. Retrieved from [https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/13/faithless-electors-2020-444866](https://www.polit